S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 21/10/26 

VIX OPEX


***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7960 SUP 7663

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7800/10

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7851/22 SUP 7555/86

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7740/50

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7720/7686  RES 7787/7821

GAMMA FLIP 7752

DELTA FLIP 7717

CALL WALLS 7833

PUT WALLS 7707

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7803/7676

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7897/7575

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  

VVIX-to-VIX The ratio of 5.61 compression is the main market driver, with the VVIX dropping more than the VIX, maintaining the ratio within the 5.0 to 6.0 range. This indicates a decrease in short-term tail risk insurance premiums, favoring volatility-selling strategies.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON RJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARGET WBBZ > ACCEPTANCE ABOVE WBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.46 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

OIL RELIEF SPURS SQUEEZY BROADENING RALLY WHILE POST-BELL PRINTS DIVERGE

US equities staged a resilient, broad-based recovery as geopolitical resolution headlines sparked a sharp sell-off in crude oil (WTI Crude -1.80% to $101.79/bbl), easing recent cross-asset inflation pressures. S&P 500 gained +28 bps to close at 7,712, while small caps outperformed for a second straight session (Russell 2000 +1.65% to 2,773). In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 lagged slightly (-13 bps to 29,490), dragged lower by overnight losses in Asian technology benchmarks (KOSPI -4.0%; a $150M South Korean neocloud IPO finished down -32%).

Market breadth was exceptionally healthy, with ~400 S&P 500 constituents closing higher on the session. However, institutional trading floor volume was muted (4/10 activity level). Execution desk flows reflected persistent, albeit slowing, net selling in Semiconductors and AI names by Long-Only accounts, while ETF turnover remained elevated at 32% of total tape volume.

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,712.00 (+0.28%) | MOC $800M to SELL | VIX down -6.13% to 17.31 | Remaining weekly straddle: 99 bps

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 29,490.00 (-0.13%) | Underperformed broader market on lingering TMT supply

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,773.00 (+1.65%) | Led the tape on short-squeezes across rate-sensitive cyclicals

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 52,495.00 (+1.02%) | Outperformed on traditional industrial and financial strength

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield down -2.7 bps to 5.1126% | Yields eased in tandem with crude oil

  • WTI Crude: Price down -1.80% to $101.79/bbl | Pulled back from cycle highs

  • Gold: Price down -0.41% to $4,123.00/oz | Eased alongside USD Index (DXY 101.72)

  • Bitcoin: Price up +0.73% to $82,498.00 | Range-bound consolidation

POST-BELL EARNINGS DASHBOARD

  • SpaceX (SPCX +1.5% AH): Delivered a strong headline beat on revenue ($14.6B, +161% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA ($8.8B vs. $2.2B prior), driven by massive inflection in its Super Intelligence (SI) compute segment ($7.6B rev) and Starlink connectivity growth. Beat vs. consensus, though viewed as soft relative to elevated whisper expectations.

  • Netflix (NFLX -5% AH): Retesting YTD lows after delivering a mixed print. While Q3 revenue rose 12% to $12.87B, management cut full-year 2026 advertising revenue guidance from ~$3.0B to $2.7B due to slower ad-product rollouts.

  • United Airlines (UAL -1.7% AH): Reported Q3 EPS of $2.54 (vs. $2.57 cons) on $17.9B revenue. Issued soft Q4 EPS guidance of $0.50–$1.50 (vs. $1.88 cons), pressured by higher projected jet fuel costs ($4.80/gal).

  • Capital One (COF +5% AH): Rallied on a top- and bottom-line beat, supported by solid consumer card performance.

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -11% AH): Plunged post-market following a modest procedure beat that failed to clear recently elevated whisper expectations, pointing to the midpoint of its tightened guidance range.

DERIVATIVES & LATAM POSITIONING

  • Index Options & Skew Flattening: SPX spot and volatility popped simultaneously on initial headlines before both trickled lower, with fixed-strike volatilities ending in the red. Option skew was crushed on the rally and steadily flattened, normalizing after Friday's panic bid. NDX fixed-strike vols and skew remained bid due to spot underperformance.

  • SPX Upside Options Structure: Institutional desk flows featured a large SPY/SPX call trade, where a customer bought 10,000 SPX 27Oct 7800 Calls and rolled them via a 1x2 ratio spread to the 7850 strike.

  • Brazil Runoff Election Mania (EWZ): Options trading on the MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) hit 1.25 million call contracts (vs. 1-day average of 735k and 5-day average of 430k) ahead of Sunday's runoff election. Flow desk activity was heavily dominated by aggressive upside call buyers.

  • Upcoming Micro Catalyst: Attention shifts to Meta Platforms (META) reporting after the close today, with the SPX implied move through Friday priced at 0.99%.